Playoffs?

[Loyal1]

OK, math whizes, how many points does RSL need to make the playoffs?

Not thinking/asking about how many joe fan thinks they need. There are threads for that.

6 matches left. Possible 18 points.

I'm sure there are people with the math skills and/or patience to figure it all out for us.

Looking for a "soccer magic number". One game at a timers need not apply.

[bordelais7]

Right now RSL's "magic point number" is 18. After running the different scenarios for all of the matches between teams competing for the playoffs in the western conference, if RSL wins all of the rest of their games, the worst they will do is finish 4th. 17 points guarantees a tie for 4th, in which case goal difference would come into play, but 17 points is an impossible number of points to obtain in 6 matches. 16 points guarantees nothing at this point. The two worst-case scenarios are:

Scenario 1
Galaxy beat Houston, Colorado, and Chivas
Chivas loses to Galaxy, beats Houston and colorado
Colorado loses to Galaxy and Chivas, beats Houston
Houston loses to Galaxy, Chivas, and Colorado

All teams win all other matches

Final standings

?? Dallas
50 Galaxy
50 Rapids
50 RSL
49 Chivas
42 Houston

Scenario 2
Houston beats Chivas, Colorado, and Galaxy
Chivas loses to Houston, beats Colorado and Galaxy
Colorado loses to Houston and Chivas, beats Galaxy
Galaxy loses to Houston, Chivas, and Colorado

All teams win all other matches

Final standings
?? Dallas
51 Houston
50 Colorado
50 RSL
49 Chivas
41 Galaxy

[Aerick]

That's sounds good if RSL wants to be in charge of its own destiny, but the odds of the two worst-case scenarios playing out aren't as good as a mixture of something between worst-case and best-case.

It appears that the best-case scenario would be Colorado, Chivas and Galaxy all losing their remaining games leaving RSL only needing 3 points to tie with Colorado but winning on goal differential.

My thought, then, is that RSL needs to get 9 points at a minimum if they want try and win by goal differential over the Galaxy and Colorado. 10 to be safe. But that's just based on how I think the rest of the season will play out for the remaining games in which teams in the Western Conference are involved:

September
Chivas USA v FC Dallas
Los Angeles Galaxy v Houston Dynamo
FC Dallas v Chivas USA
Colorado Rapids v Chicago Fire
Real Salt Lake v FC Dallas
Los Angeles Galaxy v Colorado Rapids
Houston Dynamo v Chivas USA
Columbus Crew [v B]Houston Dynamo[/B]
Chicago Fire v Los Angeles Galaxy
FC Dallas v Real Salt Lake
Chivas USA v Colorado Rapids
New England Revolution v Colorado Rapids
Columbus Crew v FC Dallas
Houston Dynamo v D.C. United
Kansas City Wizards v Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy v Chivas USA

October
Kansas City Wizards v Chivas USA
FC Dallas v Los Angeles Galaxy
Real Salt Lake v Houston Dynamo
Colorado Rapids v New York Red Bulls
Houston Dynamo v Colorado Rapids
Los Angeles Galaxy v FC Dallas
Chivas USA v Real Salt Lake

With this scenario, RSL would need 9 points to try and beat out the Galaxy and the Crapids by Goal Differential, but 10 would seal the deal. Also, in this scenario, RSL gets 9 points.

Also with this scenario, the chance for playoffs come down to the last game against the Chivas. And with Colorado and the Galaxy both in the negatives with goal differential and both only obtaining 6 and 9 points repectively, it could very well come down to goal differential. Here's the final standings:

Dallas - 60
Chivas - 46
Houston - 42
Real Salt Lake - 41
Colorado - 41
Galaxy - 41

Anyhow, that's my guesstimate.



Oh, and then RSL goes on a tear through the playoffs and takes the Cup. 😁

[Aerick]

Something else to think about is the fact that Dallas probably only needs 6 points to seal their position in the playoffs - and the unfortunate Chivas have to play them twice in a row this month. My guess is that Dalls is going to try their best to take both of these games so that they can relax a bit the rest of the season.

If that's the case, they may be easier to beat the rest of the season because their motivation to play hard will have been taken away.

However, if Chivas pulls off a victory in one or both of their matches against, RSL will have to look out as they have Dallas twice in a row after Chivas. Ouch!

[Aerick]

Looks like I missed the Colorado v. KC game as well as the RSL v DC United game on my original prediction schedule. Good thing Colorado lost - and lost big. That'll help RSL's goal differential plight if they only make 9 points (8 more, now).

[bordelais7]

Back to the magic number...after this weekend's results, RSL now has a magic point number of 15. There are several (7) different "worst-case" scenarios in which RSL wins the rest of their games and squeaks into the playoffs by 1 point.

14 points would guarantee a 4th place tie, and goal difference would come into play. Once again, however, 14 points is impossible to obtain.

13 points guarantees nothing.

So, for the time being, RSL controls their own destiny.

[nsps]

I was hoping LA and Houston would tie tonight, but I'm kind of OK with the Houston win. My only worry is that LA gets their heat back and we end up with a stronger Houston while still chasing the Gals.

My position is that the worst-case scenario number might keep getting lower, but we really need to play every game like it's our last.

[SoccerPrime]

I think we need to pull for Dallas and Houston at this point. LA plays Dallas twice in their last 5 games. I think we can give up on passing Dallas, but hopefully they can help us get rid of LA, Chivas or Colorado.

[bordelais7]

Actually, our chances increase the most if Colorado wins their matches (including the ones against Houston). Not sure if any of us can bring ourselves to cheer for them, though.

[SoccerPrime]

How can that be? Colorado is 2nd closest to us the standings. It seems that if they lose all their remaining games, that can only benefit us.