Playoffs?

[prk166]

Originally Posted by montgjules

Chance is there, but not likely, is it?

I think it's more than "not likely" though. Think about it. What have the Rapids done well this year? Win at home and.... uh... ya, win at home 1-0. They have one home game left against NYRB. Even if you assume they win this one, they really need to pick up some points off of their 4 road games. They travel to LA this saturday. Surely LA knows if they don't win, they're out of the playoffs. Then they travel to Chivas, NE, have that 1 home game at Invesco and then end the season at Houston. This is a team that just lost to KC 4-1 and hasn't got results on the road for the most part this season.

I'm not saying the chances look great but there is plenty that can still happen.

[Stucki]

Originally Posted by I_Believe_In_Kreis

And players who don't perform well will be sent to a tournament in Logan.

HEY!!!!

[Steve-o Pastorin-o]

After this last weekend we are still in it. We can really only lose one and still maybe have a chance. If we lose the Chivas game we are done.

[nsps]

I put together this list of RSL's standings in head-to-head matchups, which is the MLS's first tiebreaker. (I also posted it at BS.)

Note that the whole season's goal differential is the next tiebreaker, so we can't fin simply by winning the final game by several points.


Chivas (incomplete) - tie or loss with one loss, two ties and one game remaining.
L 3-0, T 0-0, T 3-3, final game Oct. 15 at Chivas
The best we can do is tie, in which case we'll need overall season goal differential. To do so, we need to comeback from what is currently -3 to 6 (this is where that NYRB game could bite us in the ass)

Crapids (complete) - RSL loses—and as we all know, it's an agonizing loss. One win, two losses and one tie. (7-4 pts)
T 2-2, L 1-0, W 4-1, L 1-0

Not a likely tiebreaker to worry about, but since it is possible...
FC Dallas (incomplete) - tie or loss with one win, two losses and one game remaining (currently 6-3 pts)
L 2-1, L 1-0 (should have been a tie), W 3-2, final game tomorrow at FCD, Sept. 23
Goal differential - FCD leads 7 to -3

Houston (incomplete) - loss or tie with one win, two losses and one game remaining (currently 6-3 pts)
L 2-1, L 2-1, W 3-1, remaining game Oct. 7 at home
Goal differential - Dynamo lead 3 to -3

LAG (complete) - RSL wins with two wins, a tie and a loss (7-4 pts)
L 3-2, W 3-0, T 0-0, W 1-0

[Balanceut]

Originally Posted by nsps

I put together this list of RSL's standings in head-to-head matchups, which is the MLS's first tiebreaker. (I also posted it at BS.)

Note that the whole season's goal differential is the next tiebreaker, so we can't fin simply by winning the final game by several points.


Chivas (incomplete) - tie or loss with one loss, two ties and one game remaining.
L 3-0, T 0-0, T 3-3, final game Oct. 15 at Chivas
The best we can do is tie, in which case we'll need overall season goal differential. To do so, we need to comeback from what is currently -3 to 6 (this is where that NYRB game could bite us in the ass)

Crapids (complete) - RSL loses—and as we all know, it's an agonizing loss. One win, two losses and one tie. (7-4 pts)
T 2-2, L 1-0, W 4-1, L 1-0

Not a likely tiebreaker to worry about, but since it is possible...
FC Dallas (incomplete) - tie or loss with one win, two losses and one game remaining (currently 6-3 pts)
L 2-1, L 1-0 (should have been a tie), W 3-2, final game tomorrow at FCD, Sept. 23
Goal differential - FCD leads 7 to -3

Houston (incomplete) - loss or tie with one win, two losses and one game remaining (currently 6-3 pts)
L 2-1, L 2-1, W 3-1, remaining game Oct. 7 at home
Goal differential - Dynamo lead 3 to -3

LAG (complete) - RSL wins with two wins, a tie and a loss (7-4 pts)
L 3-2, W 3-0, T 0-0, W 1-0

good and helpful analysis! Thanks! I incorporated what you say above, which basically says, if RSL is tied on match points for the last playoff spot, it pretty much loses all tiebreakers.

Here is my analysis of the impact of next week's games.

http://rsldeuce.blogspot.com/2006/09/rsl-playoff-picture.html

Basically, if RSL wins or draws next week, it can't be eliminated no matter what happens with the other teams. Even a loss at KC only eliminates RSL in a relatively small number of cases. Still, RSL needs wins to get into the playoffs.

[Balanceut]

Suffice it to say: RSL is not yet in Must Win territory, believe it or not. However, Colorado can make it that way with a win on the 7th. If RSL wins against Houston, they can't be eliminated. If RSL only draws against Houston, a Colorado victory eliminates RSL. If RSL loses against Houston, a Colorado victory or draw eliminates RSL.

I've written a substantial discussion on my blog.
http://soccerutah.blogspot.com/

[SoccerPrime]

Nice blog.

So we are big NYRB and KC fans this weekend!

[prk166]

Originally Posted by Balanceut

http://rsldeuce.blogspot.com/2006/09/rsl-playoff-picture.html

Basically, if RSL wins or draws next week, it can't be eliminated no matter what happens with the other teams. Even a loss at KC only eliminates RSL in a relatively small number of cases. Still, RSL needs wins to get into the playoffs.

Goes to show how big it was to walk away with a point at KC. Had RSL lost, a Colorado win this weekend would've eleminated RSL no matter what. But with a 2 point gap, there are a lot more possibilities.

Still, as others have pointed out, beating Houston at RES is key. RSL can't make the playoffs with a 2 ties or a tie and a loss to close the season out. They need at least one win no matter what.

[Balanceut]

Originally Posted by prk166

Goes to show how big it was to walk away with a point at KC. Had RSL lost, a Colorado win this weekend would've eleminated RSL no matter what. But with a 2 point gap, there are a lot more possibilities.

Still, as others have pointed out, beating Houston at RES is key. RSL can't make the playoffs with a 2 ties or a tie and a loss to close the season out. They need at least one win no matter what.

I agree, and Houston is the better shot because they clinched this last weekend.