The World Cup Draw!!!!

AreliusIII · 12-12-2005, 03:54 PM

http://www.goal.com/NewsDetail.aspx?idNews=108137&progr=8

beaveman · 12-13-2005, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bordelais7

This is "fuzzy" math for a couple of reasons. First of all, it's based off of the FIFA world rankings, which use a questionable algorithm to say the least. In my opinion, Serbia & Mont. is a much tougher team than the FIFA list makes them out to be, and Italy isn't quite worthy of its ranking, either. It's a fun ranking to look at, but it's tough to numerically gauge the success of teams who rarely, if ever, play each other (see BCS).

Secondly, it converts numerical ranking (represented in counting numbers) to overall strength, creating a linear scale where in fact I would assume it is more logarithmic. In other words, it assumes that the difference in skill between the 1st and 2nd ranked teams is the equal to the difference in skill between the 45th and 46th team.

Anyway, doesn't change the fact that USA are in a difficult group, but I still think group C is tougher.

How about this math? I looked at the points for the FIFA rankings and figured the average points for each group and the approximate rank for that average:
Group A: 688.75 (26)
Group B: 691.75 (25)
Group C: 700.75 (20)
Group D: 698.5 (21)
Group E: 727.75 (14)
Group F: 716.25 (15)
Group G: 672.5 (30)
Group H: 687.5 (27)

Of course, Brazil's 841 points really skews Group F's average.

I_Believe_In_Kreis · 12-13-2005, 08:34 AM

This whole argument about which group is the GoD probably depends on how you define it. I can think of three ways:

1. Straight top to bottom toughness. People who like this definition are the ones averaging world rankings, FIFA points, etc. I don't buy this definition for several reasons (mostly due to a faulty ranking/points system), but that doesn't mean I'm right. These calculations show E to be the GoD.

2. How many teams from each group 'should' (or deserve to) advance in a perfect tournament. Of course, which teams deserve to advance is highly subjective. But it's still a worthwhile exercise. For example, take group E. I believe 3 teams deserve to advance (Italy, USA, Czech). The other group that's been labeled tough, group C, only has two teams I believe deserve to advance (Argentina, Holland). In group F I only see one team that deserves to move on (Brazil). In G and H I see no teams that deserve to move on. That would make group E the GoD.

3. How many teams in each group believe they have a legitimate threat of not advancing. I'm not talking about that lip service, "every team in the WC is good" crap that every coach is spewing right now. In group E, every team believes it's possible that they will not advance. Same with group C (before the draw was even over Argentine newspapers were prediciting Argentina would lay another egg, and Pekerman acknowledged the possibility). Now group F gets a high ranking according to definition 1 because of Brazil, but I guarantee Brazil's not worried about getting out. Of course, using this definition you could label group G as GoD because all those teams better be worried about their chances.

I personally believe these all have merit, but I think group C is the GoD with E a close second. My point in writing all this is to make everyone realize that we all use different criteria in deciding what makes a group tough.

RSLfrontrowfan · 12-13-2005, 01:30 PM

Not that it really maters but I was in Sicily for the draw and the media there had dubbed group e the GoD. There might be bias based on Italy being in the group, but just wanted to let you all know what the Southern Italian media was saying.

beaveman · 12-13-2005, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSLfrontrowfan

Not that it really maters but I was in Sicily for the draw and the media there had dubbed group e the GoD. There might be bias based on Italy being in the group, but just wanted to let you all know what the Southern Italian media was saying.

Maybe group of death for the Italians - might not make it to the second round. 👍

Czar Jake · 12-14-2005, 07:04 AM

I think Italy will advance. Luca Toni won't choke under pressure like Del Piero and Vieri (yeeps for Italy's sake I hope they don't make the roster)... and the other spot is up in the air for USA or Czech... GO USA! Between the two teams, don't count out Pavel Nedved, he is still capable of making defenses look silly, but if Landy and DMB are on the same page, the US could score a lot of goals..